Lok Sabha Elections 2024: Can BJP sweep THESE states under Congress rule?

Now, arsenic the Lok Sabha Elections get underway, however volition the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) execute successful these states nether Congress's rule? And what happens if the BJP wins successful these 3 states? The reply whitethorn (or whitethorn not) prevarication successful the performances successful erstwhile elections.

It is simply a well-known information that the results of Lok Sabha polls is not ever connected the lines of the authorities assembly polls. Simply put, if 1 enactment wins the assembly polls, it doesn't warrant that the aforesaid enactment volition besides triumph the parliamentary polls. There are galore incidents to beryllium this. Let's instrumentality the states 1 by one.

Karnataka

What bash sentiment polls say? The India TV-CNX Opinion Poll suggested that the BJP is apt to triumph the presently Congress-ruled Karnataka by winning 22 retired of 28 Lok Sabha. India Today's Mood of the Nation besides gave an borderline to the BJP successful Karnataka. It revealed that the NDA (BJP + JDS) whitethorn triumph 24 seats and the INDIA bloc is apt to container 4 seats.

Trends successful erstwhile elections: Karnataka assembly polls have shown a “revolving door" signifier – meaning the authorities (party successful power) has changed each 5 years. However, the authorities has consistently voted successful favour of the BJP successful the Lok Sabha polls. 

Last time, it was successful 1999 that the Congress had won much Lok Sabha seats than the BJP. The Congress had bagged the maximum 18 Lok Sabha seats successful Karnataka successful 1999, portion the BJP had won conscionable eight. After 1999, the BJP has been winning much Lok Sabha seats than the Congress – though the authorities authorities has been shuffling betwixt the BJP and the Congress.

What happened successful erstwhile polls? In the 2013-2014 predetermination cycle, the BJP won the Lok Sabha Elections successful 2014, portion it mislaid the assembly elections successful 2013. In the 2013 assembly polls, the BJP had won 40 seats, portion the Congress had won 122 seats and the JD(S) 40 seats of the full 224 seats. Just a twelvemonth aboriginal (2014), the BJP had won 17 seats(the majority), the Congress 9 and the JD(S) two.

In the 2018 Karnataka Assembly polls, the BJP had won 104 seats, emerging arsenic the azygous largest party. It, however, failed to signifier the authorities arsenic it fell abbreviated of 7 seats to transverse the bulk mark. A twelvemonth later, successful the 2019 Lok Sabha Elections, the BJP won the maximum 25 seats of the full 28. One spot each was won by the Congress, the JD(S) and an autarkic candidate.

What happened adjacent aft 2019 polls? The Congress authorities collapse. The Congress-JDS(S)-led authorities successful Karnataka collapsed aft Chief Minister HD Kumaraswamy mislaid the ballot of assurance successful the assembly. The BJP formed the authorities successful the state.

This year, it is believed that if the Congress loses the Lok Sabha Elections to the BJP, the Siddaramaiah-led existent authorities authorities whitethorn fall. 

Telangana

What bash sentiment polls say? The Mood of the Nation canvass suggested that the biggest summation for the Congress would beryllium successful Telangana. The Congress would get 10 seats, up from 3 seats it won successful 2019. The BJP, however, would suffer a spot and settee astatine 3 successful Telangana. Meanwhile, India TV-CNX sentiment canvass said the BJP could triumph 4 seats successful Telangana.

What happened successful past elections? The authorities of Telangana was formed successful 2014. The determination Telangana Rashtra Samithi (now Bharat Rashtra Samithi) had won the state's archetypal assembly polls successful 2018, arsenic good arsenic its archetypal Lok Sabha polls successful 2019.

In the 2018 assembly elections, a maximum of 88 seats of the full 119 seats were won by the past TRS. The BJP had won conscionable 1 seat, portion the Congress won 19 seats, the AIMIM 7 seats and the TDP 2 seats.

A twelvemonth later, successful the 2019 nationalist elections, the TRS swept the polls, winning 9 seats; the BJP had won 4 seats, portion the Congress and the AIMIM won 3 and 1 seat, respectively.

However, successful its 2nd assembly polls, Telangana was won by the Congress. In the 2023 assembly polls, the grand-old enactment had crossed the bulk people successful the assembly, that is, 60, to signifier government successful the state. Now, volition this year's Lok Sabha Elections beryllium successful enactment with the assembly polls past year, arsenic it happened successful the erstwhile predetermination cycle? This volition ascertained lone connected June 4 erstwhile the results volition beryllium announced.

Himachal Pradesh

What bash sentiment polls say? Both the Mood of the Nation canvass and India TV-CNX sentiment canvass suggested that the BJP is apt to triumph each 4 Lok Sabha seats successful Himachal Pradesh, arsenic it did successful the 2019 Lok Sabha election. The Network18 Mega Opinion Poll predicted that the BJP could nett a whopping 67 percent of the votes, the Congress could extremity up with lone 27 percent.

What happened successful past elections? The BJP has been winning each the 4 Lok Sabha seats successful Himachal since 2014. Here's a examination with assembly polls which happened successful Himachal Pradesh 2 years earlier the Lok Sabha polls:

The lawsuit of Himachal Pradesh becomes adjacent much interesting, keeping successful presumption the latest rebellion amid the ruling Congress party. In the 2024 Rajya Sabha Elections, a fewer Congress leaders were believed to person voted successful the favour of the BJP campaigner – indicting a rift wrong the Congress's authorities unit.

This makes it wide that if 1 enactment wins an assembly poll, it does not wholly bespeak upon the effect of the consequent Lok Sabha Elections. What happened successful the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections -- volition the BJP transverse the 370 mark; volition Congress suffer states it presently rules? The speculations volition extremity lone connected June 4, erstwhile results for this year's Lok Sabha Elections volition beryllium announced.

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Published: 29 Apr 2024, 06:59 AM IST